News

VIPTradFi Focus: Where Does the RWA Market Stand Today?

1. Crypto outperformed traditional equity indexes following the rate hike, but elevated interest rates remain a key constraint on cross-asset allocation. From September 12 to 18, BTC, ETH, and SOL gained 4.83%, 3.84%, and 9.96%, respectively, while the S&P 500 edged down 0.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.11%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at approximately 4.998%. Improving risk appetite is therefore coexisting with elevated discount rates, raising the bar for RWA allocation: investors need to compare not only returns on the underlying assets, but also on-chain liquidity and collateral efficiency. 2. Growth in tokenized equities is occurring even as the overall RWA market remains under pressure. As of September 18, Distributed Asset Value across RWAs stood at $38.503 billion, down 1.13% week over week, while tokenized equities reached $3.056 billion, up 6.03%. This week's data are better explained by capital reallocating across different RWA segments than by a broad-based expansion of the entire RWA market. 3. For exchanges, the opportunity lies in connecting spot holdings, collateral, and derivatives. Reality's distributed asset value stands at approximately $155 million, while eligible rTokens can already be used within Bitget's UTA margin framework. Across CoinGlass's verifiable sample of 177 TradFi instruments, open interest reached approximately $11.498 billion, up 2.06% week over week, even as weekly trading volume declined 7.60%. The medium-term opportunity remains intact, but deeper utilization will depend on liquidity, collateral use, and sustained trading activity. 4.Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, NEAR, ZEC, gold, tokenized U.S. equities, COST. 5.Key metrics to watch: rToken collateral utilization, the durability of TradFi open interest and trading volume, and next week's employment and consumer data.

VIPMiddle East Tensions Raise Rate Risks but May Create Buying Opportunities

1. The sharp escalation in Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude to multi-year highs of $105–$107 per barrel, reviving inflation expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.94%, its highest level since 2023, while the implied probability of a rate hike at the September 16 policy meeting to the 3.75%–4.00% range rose from 48.4% one month ago to 67.1%. 2. Rising oil prices and rate-hike expectations weighed on most risk assets, but historical data suggest that this is more likely to be a short-term adjustment than a reversal of the broader trend. Bitcoin fell 3.36% this week and the S&P 500 declined 1.64%, while gold slipped just 0.96%. Outside the energy sector, markets are largely repricing ahead of next week's expected rate decision. 3. PoolX has recently introduced a long-term holding bonus, significantly improving effective returns for users who maintain assets on the platform over time. The core participation rules remain unchanged; the update adds an additional boost to the effective locked amount for users with qualifying long-term holdings. In the example provided, a user locking 1000 ETH would see the estimated reward increase from 1666.67 USDT to 2500 USDT, or about 50%, while the reference APR rises from 4.93% to 7.40%. Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, Brent crude, WTI crude, gold, 10-year U.S. Treasuries, RAY, ZEC, LEN, CCL.

VIPCrypto Rally, Bond Sell-Off: Where the Next Opportunities May Emerge

1. Global sovereign bonds sold off in tandem this week, with Japan at the epicenter. On September 2, the 10-year JGB yield reached 3.0175%, breaking above 3% for the first time since 1996. Over the past 12 months, it has risen 133.9 basis points, the largest increase among the six major developed-market maturities tracked. Over the same period, the French 10-year yield rose 79.7 basis points, the U.S. 10-year 74.6 basis points, and the German 10-year 70.8 basis points. The sell-off was driven less by renewed rate-hike expectations than by a repricing of fiscal supply and term premium, compounded by an approximately 10% weekly rise in crude oil, which pushed inflation expectations higher again. 2. The bond sell-off and crypto rally are not contradictory; they reflect the same underlying repricing dynamic. Bitcoin gained 2.50% for the week to $79,804 and 23.95% over the month, while gold rose 10.40% over the month. When markets are more concerned about sovereign solvency and currency purchasing power than the cost of capital, supply-constrained assets can rise alongside bond yields. On September 4, U.S. August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, well above the 53,000 expected, and the implied probability of a September rate hike rose from 49.4% to 58% that day. This repricing dynamic still has further to run. 3. Within crypto, the most active capital is not concentrated in major assets, but in a new blockchain launched only in July. Robinhood Chain's TVL rose 26.2% week over week to $836 million, while seven-day DEX volume reached $11.30 billion, up 105.7% week over week and already above BSC's $8.70 billion and Base's $5.75 billion. ARB gained 50.97% for the week, UNI rose 41.35%, and PONS surged approximately 359%, compared with just 2.50% for Bitcoin over the same period. 4.Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, PONS, ARB, UNI, MARSCOIN, XAUUSD, UKOUSD, ORCL, ADBE.

VIPTreasury Pricing Shifts Toward Credit Risk as Capital Rotates Into Crypto

1. The relationship between Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury yields has entered a new regime. Based on weekly changes, the 26-week rolling correlation averaged −0.21 in 2022 and −0.31 in 2023, when rising yields tended to coincide with falling Bitcoin prices. The correlation averaged +0.16 in both 2025 and 2026 and stands at +0.18 this week. The key difference is what is driving yields higher: previously, it was expectations of monetary tightening; currently, the pressure increasingly comes from fiscal deficits and concerns over U.S. sovereign creditworthiness. When the market is more concerned about sovereign credit risk than the cost of capital, supply-constrained assets such as Bitcoin and gold can move in the same direction as yields. 2. Macro liquidity remains tight, while the room for policy maneuver continues to narrow. U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate of 1.5% in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1, while the Core PCE Price Index rose 3.34% year over year in July, unchanged from June. This leaves the Fed with limited justification for either rate cuts or further hikes. Meanwhile, the ON RRP balance has fallen to just $456 million, down 35.04% over the past 30 days. With this buffer against the liquidity impact of Treasury issuance now largely depleted, bank reserves have also declined 0.35% over the same period. 3. Prices were largely range-bound this week, but capital rotated meaningfully within crypto. Bitcoin gained 1.14% for the week to $77,860 and Ethereum rose 1.40%, while SOL surged 12.84%. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $925 million in net inflows, down 35% from $1.415 billion the previous week. Ethereum inflows climbed 160%, from $314 million to $816 million, while SOL inflows surged 397%. As a result, Bitcoin's share of combined net inflows across the four asset categories fell from 79% to 46%, pointing to a broader diversification of crypto allocations. Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, XAUUSD, UKOUSD, NVDA, AVGO, DELL, PANW.