Spot Ethereum ETF approval 'unlikely until late 2025 or early 2026,' says TD Cowen
TD Cowen anticipates that the SEC will not approve a spot Ethereum ETF until late 2025 or early 2026.Earlier this month, the bank just said approval could come after the November 2024 election.
"We do not expect the SEC in 2024 to approve a spot Ethereum ETF," TD Cowen Washington Research Group, led by Jaret Seiberg, wrote in a note on Monday. "This is a political call. We believe there is no upside for SEC Chair Gary Gensler to approve a spot Ethereum ETF given how upset progressive Democrats were over the agency's approval of a spot bitcoin ETF earlier this month."
Gensler needs the support of progressives to push forward his agenda in this election year, according to TD Cowen. Also, if Gensler pursues a different role, such as Treasury secretary, in the event of President Joe Biden winning a second term, he will still need the backing of progressives, the bank said.
So, "there is no reason to provoke a needless fight," TD Cowen said. "We say needless, as our view remains that Gensler is in no hurry to approve an Ethereum ETF as he would first like more experience with the performance of the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. This is consistent with his broader approach to crypto, which is to move incrementally and slowly when it comes to providing regulatory approvals or clarity."
Spot Ethereum ETF applications
More than half a dozen companies, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have applied for a spot Ethereum ETF. Last week, the SEC again postponed its decision on Grayscale Investments' proposal for a spot Ethereum ETF, following delays on other applications earlier this month.
The SEC can take its time reviewing spot Ethereum ETF applications, according to TD Cowen. "It can eventually reject the rule change, which either will lead to a new application or litigation. Either will take another year or two to play out," the bank said.
The expected late 2025 or early 2026 approval deadline is possible even if Congress fails to enact broader crypto market structure legislation in 2025, TD Cowen said. Gensler's term ends in June 2026.
Crypto experts have been both optimistic and pessimistic that a spot ether ETF approval is on the horizon. Some think such an approval could come as early as May — the initial deadline for approving such funds.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The Capital Trends Behind the AI Computing Power Rebound: JPMorgan Fund Flows Reveal Retail Buy-In "Shrinking," Pouring Into Nvidia, SanDisk and Other Computing Power Core Companies
What has been revealed is not a "complete withdrawal of retail investors from AI," but rather a significant slowdown in overall market entry pace under macroeconomic pressure, with stock selections becoming more concentrated. In response to the Federal Reserve's unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the policy rate to 3.75%–4.00%, JPMorgan's assessment is: if this is simply a withdrawal of last year's "insurance-style rate cuts" during a shallow rate hike cycle—and if corporate earnings remain strong and the Middle East situation does not further spiral out of control—the stock market is still capable of absorbing rising interest rates.
Vote Result 7-2! Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates at Fastest Pace Since 1990, Does Not Signal a Clearly More Hawkish Stance
The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 1.25%, marking the highest level since 1995 and the sixth increase since exiting the negative interest rate policy in March 2024. Out of the nine committee members, Asada and Sato voted against the hike, citing the current economic situation, reflecting ongoing internal disagreements over further tightening. In its statement, the Bank of Japan indicated it will continue to raise rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing, but the forward guidance language showed limited changes from the July statement, without sending notably more hawkish signals.
Crypto prices
More
