The probability of the Federal Reserve remaining inactive in March is 89.5%
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 89.5%, and the probability of a rate cut by 25 basis points is 10.5%. By May, the likelihood of keeping interest rates unchanged is 63.3%, with a cumulative chance for a rate cut by 25 basis points at 33.7%, and a cumulative chance for a rate cut by 50 basis points at 3.1%.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Is the “AI bank run” coming? Apollo warns: AI assistants may drain banks' cheap deposits, which will pose risks to the financial system
Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, stated that if consumers begin to heavily rely on AI assistants such as Muse under Meta and transfer cash to higher-yielding accounts, it could pose risks to the financial system.
CNY: How to resolve the dilemma between bulls and bears?
Rare in 25 years! The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpasses the S&P 500 earnings yield
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, making bonds more attractive relative to stocks than at any point in the past 25 years. The earnings yield of stocks, as measured by the inverse of the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio, is now lower than the 10-year US Treasury yield, resulting in a clear yield suppression effect on the stock market from bonds. According to the Shiller model, the S&P 500 may outperform bonds by only about 1% annually over the next decade. The 20-year paradigm of stocks outperforming bonds has officially come to an end.
Crypto prices
More
