Bitcoiners say the halving will trigger an 'immense supply shock' and is barely priced in
Bitcoin proponents argue the halving could have a big impact through the reduction of new supply. However, some say that this will have a minimal effect that will only impact some miners.
“This halving will trigger an immense supply shock to the system. With current U.S. ETFs at 5-10x daily supply, post-halving demand would be 10-20x supply,” Samson Mow, CEO at bitcoin technology company JAN3, told The Block.
Mow added that the bitcoin ETFs launching in Hong Kong could also bring in further capital from Asian investors. He highlighted that these ETFs will have in-kind provisions, meaning investors can redeem their investments for the underlying bitcoin, something that’s not possible with U.S. bitcoin ETFs.
Since launching in January, the U.S. bitcoin ETFs have seen an overall increase of 212,000 BTC ($13.7 billion). However, some estimate that the Hong Kong ETFs will be "lucky" to even attract $500 million of total AUM.
Regardless, some supporters argue that the supply shock in and of itself could have an impact on bitcoin's price.
“The Bitcoin halving is priced in for the 0.1% of the world population that understands it,” said Dan Held, a general partner at bitcoin-focused VC firm Asymmetric, over Telegram. “The other 99.9% aren’t paying attention.”
'Nothing novel to happen'
However, not all bitcoin advocates see the halving as having such a major impact.
“Satoshi arbitrarily decided the emission schedule for Bitcoin and made it reduce in half every period. This affects miners that do not plan properly sometimes,” John Carvalho, CEO of Bitcoin development company Synonym, told The Block.
“Some people believe this induces an increase in price, but overall supply is minimally affected. So far, bull markets in price tend to have a correlating schedule. I expect nothing novel to happen this time,” he added.
The bitcoin halving is set to occur tonight, with the rewards per block decreasing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC for the next four years. Make sure to watch the countdown here .
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk
From the Token Frenzy to the $1.3 Trillion AI Server Blue Ocean: AI Inference Computing Power Fully Explodes, Industry Leaders like Dell Usher in the Golden Era of "Volume, Price, and Market Share"
Leading global AI server cluster manufacturers such as Dell are simultaneously benefiting from two major growth dividends: the accelerated expansion of the AI server market and a significant increase in the order shares from core AI cloud computing customers, including large enterprises and new cloud providers. They are not merely passively profiting from hardware price increases.
GPU Cloud Services Surge in Price: Nebius Raises Prices Again by 20%, Computing Power Supply Side Gains Bargaining Power
From October 1st, Nebius will raise prices for its entire GPU cloud service line by approximately 20%, with multiple chips from H100 to B300 seeing increases. This marks the second round of price hikes in recent months, and the cumulative increase for B300 has reached 56%. Demand visibility extends beyond 24 months, with customers eager to purchase Blackwell computing power, even willing to pay a premium in auctions. The supply-demand imbalance for AI computing power is reshaping the entire industry’s negotiation landscape, as bargaining power is quietly shifting to the supply side.
Crypto prices
More
