The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the same interest rate in June is 91.3%
According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.3%, and the probability of a rate cut by 25 basis points is 8.7%. The likelihood of the Fed maintaining steady rates until August is 68.6%, with a cumulative chance of a rate cut by 25 basis points at 29.2% and a cumulative chance for a reduction by 50 basis points at just 2.2%.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Deutsche Bank: After the three major central banks hiked rates simultaneously, the market may once again underestimate the terminal interest rate
Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.
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