The scale of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has dropped to around 7.3 trillion US dollars
According to data from the Federal Reserve's official website, as of May 14th, the scale of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has dropped to around 7.3 trillion dollars, currently reported at 7.304 trillion dollars. Since May, it has cumulatively reduced by about 58.2 billion dollars.
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Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.
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