QCP Capital says bitcoin all-time high could follow upcoming jobless claims and CPI

Today’s U.S. jobless claims report and next week's CPI release could be the catalysts for new bitcoin all-time highs, according to analysts at crypto asset trading firm QCP Capital.

“A lower than expected jobless claims report tonight and the CPI release next week might potentially be the trigger for a new all time high for BTC +0.73% ,” the analysts wrote Thursday — also noting substantial spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of $488.1 million on Wednesday and call buying.

QCP also suggested momentum may be added to such a rally as the market prices in potential rate cuts. The Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to cut interest rates this year on Wednesday, reducing them a quarter-point to 4.75%. The European Central Bank is expected to follow suit later today, cutting rates by the same amount to 4.25%.

Ether had a brief period of outperformance against bitcoin following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval on 19b-4 forms for eight spot Ethereum ETFs from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity on May 23. However, the issuers still need to have their S-1 registration statements go effective before trading begins, which could take weeks.

QCP said they expected ether to continue lagging in the short term, noting SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s comments in an interview with CNBC yesterday that the spot Ethereum ETF S-1 approvals “will take some time.” However, the analysts expect ether to eventually outperform bitcoin once the ETFs start trading.

Cryptocurrency market muted ahead of U.S. economic data

The cryptocurrency market is muted ahead of Thursday's U.S. jobless claims report and Friday’s NFP release, with bitcoin trading mostly flat over the past 24 hours at $71,065 and ether at $3,850, as of the time of writing, according to The Block's Prices Page . The global crypto market cap today stands at $2.78 trillion, an increase of 0.6% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko .

However, this week's jobless claims NFP data could provide indicators of the labor market's condition, offering markets greater clarity about when the U.S. Federal Reserve might lean toward a looser monetary policy.

This could further energize global stock markets and risk assets such as bitcoin, according to Aurelie Barthere, principle research analyst at Nansen. "As long as growth slows but does not contract, it is likely to push U.S. rates lower and become a tailwind for crypto," Barthere told The Block.

Barthere added that Friday's NFP data is likely to be the next major data point in determining the likelihood of an end to higher-for-longer rates. "U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that, were unemployment to increase with inflation sticky, he would have a preference for rate cuts," Barthere said