Macquarie advances its prediction for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut to December this year

Macquarie Group economists predict that, thanks to the recent fall in inflation, the Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy from December rather than the first quarter of 2025. "Broad indicators show significant improvement, which is conducive to a decline in inflation," economist David Doyle wrote on Tuesday when discussing the May CPI report. "This improvement, coupled with more mixed signals from the labor market, has prompted us to advance our basic scenario forecast for FOMC policy relaxation." Macquarie currently predicts that there will be a 25 basis point rate cut in the fourth quarter, specifically in December; previously it was predicted for the first quarter of 2025.