August 2nd Futures Market Update

The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates tonight, but the key issue is "what will be said after the hike." Citi characterizes this move as a "fine-tuning" adjustment, suggesting there is no inevitable future rate hike, yet warns that if Chairman Powell does not provide clear forward guidance, it will trigger significant market volatility. Goldman Sachs bluntly stated that there is insufficient economic foundation for this rate hike, with inflation being merely a one-off factor, and expects this to be a "signal-less rate hike."

JPMorgan believes that open-source models are not a threat, regulatory disruptions are only short-term, and cloud vendors’ leverage remains low—the fundamentals of computing power investment have not changed. It forecasts that the capital expenditure of the seven major tech giants will soar from $443 billion in 2025 to $1.577 trillion in 2027, with semiconductor equipment becoming the core bottleneck of the supply chain and a new round of price increases expected in wafer foundry and advanced packaging.

Micron executive Sumit Sadana stated that memory bandwidth and capacity have become the core factors determining the performance ceiling of AI systems. In the face of structural imbalances between supply and demand, Micron expects to increase capital expenditure to over $45 billion in fiscal year 2027, but due to process complexity, substantive new capacity will not be released until 2028. Additionally, long-term supply agreements are reshaping the industry's business model, and humanoid robots will trigger the next wave of massive demand.

Goldman Sachs has issued a rare warning to top clients: deep structural cracks are emerging in AI momentum. The AI-themed basket has dropped nearly 45% from its peak, with the one-day performance gap between short-term and long-term momentum reaching a five-year high. Capital is accelerating its shift from semiconductors to software. Goldman Sachs explicitly recommends that investors with AI exposure start hedging.