JPMorgan Chase has raised the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession by the end of the year to 35%
PANews reported on August 8 that JPMorgan now believes there is a 35% chance of the U.S. economy falling into recession by the end of this year, up from 25% at the beginning of last month. Bruce Kasman and his team of economists at JPMorgan wrote in a report to clients on Wednesday that news from the U.S. "suggests labor demand weakness is more severe than expected, with early signs of layoffs emerging." The team maintains a 45% probability for an economic recession in the second half of 2025. "We have moderately increased our assessment of recession risk, compared to which we have made larger adjustments to our outlook for interest rates," Kasman and his colleagues wrote. JPMorgan now thinks there's only a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep interest rates high long term, down from a predicted likelihood of 50% just two months ago. As U.S inflation pressure decreases, JPMorgan predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points each in September and November.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
US steps up pressure! Nearly 90% of economists bet the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1.25% on Friday
Amid inflation and U.S. pressure, nearly 90% of experts expect the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% this Friday, further increasing volatility in the yen exchange rate.

Evercore ISI reaffirms “Outperform” rating on Netflix (NFLX.US), optimistic about live sports broadcasts and short videos as blockbuster growth engines
Evercore ISI has raised the price target for the streaming platform Netflix (NFLX.US) from $100 to $110 and reiterated its "outperform" rating.

$44.8 million per shipment! The cost of transporting US crude oil to Asia hits a record high
As Middle Eastern supply disruptions intensify and buyers scramble to secure energy sources, the cost of shipping U.S. crude oil to Asia has soared to a new record.

2-Yr Benchmark Govt Yields - Germany vs Other Nations