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The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, reaching a new high since 2007. The longer high interest rates persist, the greater the refinancing pressure will be on real estate companies, commercial real estate, and highly indebted firms, with systemic risks likely to accelerate and emerge within the next 12 to 18 months.

Jefferies predicts that, driven by the dual engines of the AI investment boom and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index is expected to soar to 8,000 points by the end of 2026 and further reach 9,000 points in 2027. AI-driven profit expansion has spread from the "Magnificent Seven" to the entire market, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast to surge by 35% this year, far exceeding market consensus—marking the strongest earnings supercycle since 1995! The only real threat: if US Treasury yields continue to spike, the risk of valuation compression cannot be ignored.

Citi believes that as AI enters the era of "continuous learning" beyond simple training and inference stages, demand for HBM, server DDR5, and enterprise SSDs (eSSD) will experience explosive and simultaneous growth starting from 2027. While demand will surge rapidly, the supply side is constrained by HBM production capacity usage and slower technology migration, leading to expansion lagging far behind demand. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue until 2031.