The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 50.1% before the PCE data release
Before the PCE data was released, according to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting 25 basis points by November was 50.1%, and the probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points was 49.9%.
The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 26.0%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 50.0%; The probability for a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is at 24.0%.
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