Organization: The probability of the US Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts mid-next year is increasing
Minsheng Securities stated that the probability of the US Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts will increase by mid-next year. The unemployment rate remains low, and with inflation declining being obstructed, the Fed may cut rates 2 to 3 times next year, possibly pausing in the second half of the year. In a small probability scenario, excessive tariffs and immigration policies could lead to a decline in US stocks and a significant downturn in the US economy, which might result in more rate cuts next year.
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