Bitfinex report: bitcoin estimated to reach as low as $145,000 by mid-2025
On 16 December, Bitfinex released a report stating that ‘from its November 2022 bear market low of $15,487, Bitcoin has risen more than 573%, with the year-to-date price up 130%. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, driven primarily by ETFs and spot accumulation. Historical data suggests that we are in the middle of the cycle, and after the April 2024 halving, the market could peak in Q3-Q4 2025, roughly 450 days after the halving.
Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL and the Bull/Bear Cycle Indicator suggest that we are still in a bullish phase but far from an overly optimistic peak. the Pi Cycle Top and Four Year Moving Average Models forecast a potential cycle top price between $145,000 and $189,000. Historically, diminishing returns are moderating the explosive gains seen in Bitcoin in previous cycles.
Our view is that any correction in 2025 will remain modest, benefiting from the inflow of institutional capital.
Halving Year Effect: Historically, halving years have typically seen the strongest rallies.
Cyclical target: The minimum price in mid-2025 is estimated at $145,000 and could reach $200,000 under favourable conditions.
While volatility is expected in the first quarter of 2025, the overall trend points to further price gains, supported by ETFs, institutional adoption and the growing importance of bitcoin as a global asset. However, investors should remain vigilant and watch for overbought signals as Bitcoin nears the top of the cycle.’
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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