Analyst: There is a serious disagreement within the Federal Reserve about the level of neutral interest rates
On December 19, analyst Chris stated that the divergence in long-term interest rate forecasts indeed highlights that there is no consensus among members on the true definition of neutral interest rates. However, one point almost everyone agrees on is that it's higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Economists attribute this to various reasons, including an increased burden of federal debt. The gap between the lowest and highest long-term interest rate forecasts reaches as much as 1.5 percentage points, rising from 2.4% all the way up to 3.9%.
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