The probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged next January is 88.8%
The probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged next January is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 11.2%. The probability of keeping current rates unchanged through March next year is 46.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 48.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.
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Overseas capital is aggressively buying US stocks! Net inflows reached $942 billions over the past 12 months, marking a record since 1985.
According to data from the US Department of the Treasury, in the 12 months ending July this year, overseas investors made net purchases of US stocks totaling $942 billion, marking the highest rolling 12-month total since records began in 1985. The net purchases in the second quarter alone reached $426 billion, setting a new single-quarter record. Meanwhile, overseas demand for US Treasuries has noticeably cooled, with purchase volumes falling significantly. As a result, the US is facing higher costs in government debt financing.
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