Analysis: U.S. Treasury market volatility index rebounds from bottom, risk assets like Bitcoin may remain under pressure

According to CoinDesk, the MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) index, a measure of volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, has been rising since bottoming out at 82 points in mid-December and reached 102.78 points on January 8th. As the second-largest financial market globally, increased volatility in the Treasury market often signals tightening financial conditions and may trigger risk aversion across various financial markets. The latest data shows that manufacturing performance exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressures, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher across the board. Among them, the yield on 30-year Treasuries rose to 4.92% (the highest since November 23), while the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed to 4.68% (the highest level since May). After Trump won the election on November 5th, the MOVE index had significantly declined, leading to broad gains in risk assets; however, this upward momentum began to weaken when the MOVE index bottomed out in mid-December. On January 8th, Bitcoin fell by 5% to $96,900 and S&P 500 dropped over 1%. Analysts pointed out that currently bond markets are dominating broader market trends and until stability returns to Treasury markets it will be difficult for risk assets to regain an upward trajectory.