Probability of Fed keeping rates unchanged in January after ADP and initial claims data is 93.1%
According to CME “Fed Watch”: the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January is 93.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 6.9%. The probability of keeping the current rate unchanged by March is 58.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut is 38.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut is 2.6%.
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According to data from the US Department of the Treasury, in the 12 months ending July this year, overseas investors made net purchases of US stocks totaling $942 billion, marking the highest rolling 12-month total since records began in 1985. The net purchases in the second quarter alone reached $426 billion, setting a new single-quarter record. Meanwhile, overseas demand for US Treasuries has noticeably cooled, with purchase volumes falling significantly. As a result, the US is facing higher costs in government debt financing.
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