Long-term holders' chip distribution has started! BTC bull market may peak in 2025, historical data reveals key signals

With the divergence in the AI narrative, drastic fluctuations in oil prices, and U.S. Treasury yields soaring to a 20-year high, the degree of dispersion among S&P 500 constituents has risen to the 95th percentile in 30 years. As single-stock volatility continues to compress, entry costs have become relatively low, and the volatility gap between individual stocks and the index has widened again. This has opened a rare window for dispersed trading strategies such as "long single-stock options + short index options."

The U.S. Treasury yield curve is rapidly approaching the inversion threshold—the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields has narrowed to historic lows, and bank stocks have responded with a technical correction. This warning signal, regarded as a "hard rule" for recession, is tearing apart market consensus: some are betting the curve will soon invert, while others firmly believe economic resilience will mitigate the risk. Amid ongoing Federal Reserve rate hikes, the outcome of this bond market game may reshape the narrative logic of the entire asset market.

In just two weeks, the Nasdaq 100 experienced an extreme rollercoaster: first losing $600 billion in market value due to “AI threat” concerns, then rebounding to reclaim $3 trillion thanks to the viral Meta assistant. Analysts believe that market sentiment is swinging violently between fear and greed, detached from fundamentals. The turmoil has driven Nvidia’s valuation to a ten-year low, intensified the bull-bear divide, and the high volatility driven by narratives has become a long-term norm for investors. This week, Micron will release its financial report; regardless of the outcome, the sharp swings in market sentiment are unlikely to subside.

This week, the market's focus will shift from politics and product launches to financial reports and macroeconomic data.