Tonight, US nonfarm payrolls may see a "million-level" downward revision

Gelonghui, February 11｜The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed January non-farm payroll report tonight, along with annual benchmark revisions and methodology updates. The market expects this revision to erase about 1 million jobs, making it one of the largest downward adjustments in the history of U.S. employment statistics. According to preliminary BLS estimates, employment growth from April 2024 to March 2025 will be revised down by 750,000 to 900,000 jobs. In addition, the BLS will update its business birth-death projection data for the period from April to December 2025, which is expected to further reduce jobs by 500,000 to 700,000. This means that in the non-farm payroll data through December 2025, as many as 1 million jobs may have never actually existed.