Wintermute: BTC Finds Support at the 200-Week Moving Average, Uptrend Resumption Requires Macro Clarity

PANews, February 17 – According to a research report by Wintermute, as spot trading volumes continue to shrink, leverage has become the main driver of short-term volatility. In the absence of "structural buying" (long-term capital able to absorb selling pressure) to absorb fluctuations, the market will experience sharp surges and drops on both the long and short sides. From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which historically has often marked the bottom of bear markets.

Wintermute believes that until clear signals reappear at the macro level, every rebound will be seen as an opportunity to de-risk rather than a reason to chase momentum.

For crypto, the key to returning to an upward trajectory still depends on macro clarity. The 200-week moving average is still holding, and the market has not experienced structural damage, which means that once macro uncertainty dissipates, the speed of recovery may be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a range-bound, slightly downward state; the order book is dominated by leverage, and $70,000 remains an important near-term resistance level.

Finally, a recovery may occur in the second half of 2026, but the patience required to reach that point is likely already exhausted for the vast majority of participants.