Willy Woo: The crypto market is at the end of the first stage of the bear market and is about to enter the second stage.

Foresight News reported that Willy Woo tweeted that dividing the bitcoin bear market into three stages is very helpful for judging the cycle. Stage one—the beginning of the bear market—at this point, bitcoin liquidity has already collapsed (this situation occurred in Q3 2025), and the price begins to fall accordingly. Bitcoin is a relatively small-scale asset, so it is extremely sensitive to liquidity. For this reason, it often leads the global macroeconomy into a bear market, usually several months in advance. In other words, when smart money pulls out, bitcoin reacts quickly. Smart money may also exit the stock market, but the stock market does not respond as quickly. In this stage, long-term extreme bulls blindly claim that this is just a correction in a larger bull market, but cannot provide any strong evidence of capital inflows, only empty rhetoric.

Stage two—at this point, global stock markets enter a bear market. Since the stock market is a massive market worth 100 trillions of dollars, it is like a giant supertanker, slow to move. This is the mid-stage of the bitcoin bear market, when all risk assets are falling, and there is no doubt that we are in a bear market. Stage three—the light at the end of the tunnel. In this stage, liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and start to stabilize, and investors are returning. This stage usually features one last price crash (capitulation sell-off), which occurs either just before or shortly after the peak in capital outflows. According to this bear market framework, bitcoin is currently in stage one and approaching stage two.