Analyst from Tom Lee's firm: ETH dropped as low as $1,367, but the implied return over the next 12 months is 81%
BlockBeats News, February 20, Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Tom Lee's Fundstrat, released the latest Ethereum analysis. The current average cost of ETH is $2,241, while the current price is $1,934, meaning investors are on average at a 22% loss. Comparing the current decline to historical lows, in 2022, the average maximum loss for investors reached 39%, and in 2025, the average maximum loss was 21%. Applying these two figures to the current average cost of $2,241, ETH could potentially drop to a low of $1,367 or $1,770.
According to the analysis of realized loss percentiles since 2017 to forecast future returns, the current average loss is at the 9% of historical highs, indicating a relatively high level of loss. The implied 12-month return rate is +81%. This suggests that the price of Ethereum is close to the bottom. In the long run, Ethereum's risk/reward ratio appears positive.
Tom Lee himself reposted this analysis, stating that it helps to consider investor capital flows and position allocation near the bottom.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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