Invesco and Carmignac short U.S. Treasuries, skeptical about the Fed's rate cut potential

华尔街见闻2026/02/19 22:51

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Managers pointed out that the stronger-than-expected U.S. employment growth in January, companies' large-scale investments in artificial intelligence (AI), and the Federal Reserve policymakers' cautious attitude toward rate cuts all indicate that the economy is too strong for the Fed to implement significant easing. Although some investors still expect rate cuts, other institutions, including BNP Paribas, are skeptical and warn that if rate cuts do not materialize as expected, U.S. Treasury prices will face sharp declines.

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According to data from the US Department of the Treasury, in the 12 months ending July this year, overseas investors made net purchases of US stocks totaling $942 billion, marking the highest rolling 12-month total since records began in 1985. The net purchases in the second quarter alone reached $426 billion, setting a new single-quarter record. Meanwhile, overseas demand for US Treasuries has noticeably cooled, with purchase volumes falling significantly. As a result, the US is facing higher costs in government debt financing.

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