Summary of Institutional Interpretations After the US Supreme Court Overturned Tariffs: Is It the End for Trump? Refunds Unlikely This Year
PANews, February 21 – After the IEEPA tariff was rejected, several institutions provided their interpretations. The main viewpoints are summarized as follows:
1. Jefferies: The Supreme Court ruling benefits consumer-driven sectors such as retail, catering, and apparel.
2. Banco Base analyst Gabriela Siller: The US tariff ruling may put Mexico in a worse position.
3. Economist from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School Budget Model: The Supreme Court ruling could trigger over $175 billion in tariff refunds.
4. Glenmede Head of Investment Strategy and Research Jason Pride: Any potential tariff refunds are unlikely to be realized this year and may be delayed for several years.
5. Georgetown University international trade law professor Jennifer Hillman: For Trump to invoke Section 122, he must declare that “the dollar is about to depreciate sharply” or there is a “serious balance of payments deficit.”
6. Capital Economics: Trump may turn to use Section 122 or Section 338; the amount related to tariff refunds is expected to reach about $120 billion, accounting for 0.5% of GDP.
7. ING: Europe should now prepare for the US to impose more targeted trade tariffs on specific industries, with auto parts and chemicals likely to be the next targets.
8. Former White House official Jon Lang: ASEAN exporters have gained a temporary reprieve, with tariffs reset to a low level of 10%. The US will import more goods from these countries during this 150-day interim window. (Golden Ten Data APP)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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