Buying Bitcoin? Hold for at least three years to avoid losses, data says

Bitcoin (BTC) rewards investors the most who hold it for at least three years, according to data shared by André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe.

Key takeaways:

• Holding BTC for at least three years has historically slashed losses to just 0.70%.

• Bitcoin price predictions for 2026–2027 cluster around $100,000–$150,000 in bullish scenarios.

Long-term Bitcoin holders rarely lose

A Bitwise analysis reviewed Bitcoin’s price history between July 17, 2010, and Feb. 11, 2026, concluding that the probability of being in the red drops to just 0.70% when BTC is held for at least three years.

In other words, nearly all rolling three-year entry points in Bitcoin’s history ended up profitable. Beyond three years, the risk of loss fell even further: 0.2% over five years and 0% over ten years.

Traders holding Bitcoin for less than three years faced a much higher risk of loss.

Intraday buyers, for instance, had a 47.1% chance of being underwater. That probability stayed elevated at 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month, and 24.3% over a one-year holding period.

Stronger hands are 90% in profit already

The realized price metric also shows declines in holders’ losses over multi-year windows.

As of Saturday, Bitcoin was down by roughly 50% from its October 2025 high, trading for around $65,000.

That was way above its three-to-five-year realized price of $34,780, meaning investors who bought and held through that window were still sitting on an approximately 90% profit.

Meanwhile, some traders argue the ongoing Bitcoin price correction could extend toward $30,000.

A move to that level would wipe out much of the cohort’s cushion, pushing the three–five year band closer to breakeven. That would further test whether these holders start adding to sell pressure or sit tight.

Conversely, most traders who bought Bitcoin in the past two years were underwater.

The cost basis of the 6m–12m cohort, entities that have been holding BTC for up to a year, was around $101,250, leaving them with roughly a 35% in unrealized loss as of Saturday.

However, the 1y–2y cohort’s cost basis was lower, around $78,150, translating into about a 15% unrealized loss.

The gap reinforced the same pattern seen in the holding-period data: the longer the holding window, the smaller the drawdown tends to be during corrections.

How high can BTC price go?

Longer-term forecasts still cluster around a handful of upside targets for 2026–2027.

For instance, global brokerage firm Bernstein maintained its $150,000 BTC price call for 2026, pointing to relatively modest net outflows of about 7% from spot Bitcoin ETFs, even as BTC’s price fell by 50%.

“The current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.

Standard Chartered, meanwhile, warned of a potential “final capitulation” phase that could drag BTC toward $50,000 amid weak ETF flows and a tougher macro backdrop, before recovering toward $100,000 by the end of 2026.

Looking into 2027, Timothy Peterson’s historical “average return” framework points to $122,000 by early 2027, with high odds that BTC trades above that figure.