Experts respond to whether the escalation of the Middle East situation will trigger a global stock market bear market: It depends on the scope and duration of the conflict
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Glonghui March 1st丨According to China News Service, will the escalation of the Middle East situation trigger a global stock market bear market? Tian Lihui, Dean of the Institute of Financial Development at Nankai University, stated in an interview that the escalation of the Middle East situation impacts global stock markets through a triple logic transmission: First, risk premium repricing, with funds systematically flowing out of risk assets; second, energy cost shocks, as rising oil prices squeeze the profits of midstream and downstream enterprises; third, a monetary policy dilemma, as high oil prices make it more difficult for central banks to cut interest rates, thereby suppressing valuations. Whether this will trigger a global bear market depends on the scope and duration of the conflict. At present, it appears to be a structural shock rather than a systemic crisis. Markets with high oil import dependence, such as Europe and Asia, face greater adjustment pressure than the United States, and the market will enter a stage of high volatility and differentiation.
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