(Kitco News) - The gold market will see its final dip down before re-accelerating its rally toward new record highs in 2025, according to Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com.
Some unknown factors that could impact the price beyond what markets expect include new tariffs proposed by incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold prices have seen significant rallies in recent years, rising approximately $500 per ounce in two separate instances. Wagner suggested that if gold experiences a dip to $2,600 and then rallies by $400, as it did in previous cycles, it could reach $3,000 at the end of this year or early next year.
"I see gold not only taking out $2,800, but my numbers have been about $2,900, with the upper level being $3,000. What I'm basing that on is the various legs of the rally," Wagner told Kitco News. "Back in October of 2023, gold was just under $2,000, and from there it ran to $2,535. So, roughly $500. Then, it entered a correction. And from $2,380, it ran to $2,800. So we saw a $500 rally, and then we saw a $400 rally."
At the time of writing, spot gold was trading at $2,691 an ounce, up 0.5% on the day and 2.5% year-to-date.
For more trading insights, key levels, and timing, watch the video above.
In the meantime, Goldman Sachs revised its gold price forecast at the start of this year, pushing back its prediction of $3,000 per ounce from 2025 to mid-2026. The investment bank expects gold to reach $2,910 per ounce by the end of 2025.
Gold's upcoming rally
The potential for new tariffs under the incoming Trump administration is a key driver of Wagner's bullish outlook for gold. Trump has pledged to implement tariffs on goods from various countries, including a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.
"If President-elect Trump is true to his commitments to implement tariffs, those could create tremendous inflationary pressures," Wagner said. He added that tariffs could lead to a surge in inflation, which would benefit gold as an inflation hedge.
Wagner also highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East, as supportive factors for gold prices. He noted that these conflicts show no signs of abating and that "geopolitical conflicts are still fully embedded in."
The World Economic Forum (WEF) stated on Wednesday that armed conflict is the top risk in 2025. "State-based armed conflict emerges as the top immediate risk for 2025, identified by nearly a quarter of respondents, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and fragmentation globally," the WEF said in its annual survey.
In addition to tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, Wagner pointed to other potential macro surprises that could impact gold prices, such as U.S. fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. He noted that the Federal Reserve is slowing the pace of interest rate cuts, and how many cuts will occur in 2025 remains to be seen.
"The interest rate cuts the Fed enacts this year will be dependent on the most current data, and so we'll have to see where that data leads us to," Wagner said. He emphasized that inflation, economic growth, and the budget deficit will affect the Fed's decision-making.
Wagner added that one big unknown this year is the impact of tariffs on precious metals. Precious metals have historically been exempt from tariffs, but whether that will continue under the Trump administration is unclear. He cautioned that tariffs on precious metals could create extreme volatility in the market.
"If our inventories are picking up in terms of physical in the United States, initially supply and demand would dictate that that could pressure them lower because our stockpiles, our inventory is greater," Wagner said. "But inevitably, if they have to add a surcharge or a tariff as they import precious metals, that would have profound implications on what we could see in the price. It will create extreme volatility. It could have a genuine impact overall on the price of gold, silver, platinum, to a smaller extent, palladium this year."
