Goldman Sachs: South Korea's semiconductor exports are expected to surge, helping to offset the drag on the current account caused by rising oil prices

格隆汇 March 4｜Goldman Sachs released a report, predicting that rising oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East will lead to a deterioration in the current account balance for almost all economies in emerging Asia. However, the surge in semiconductor exports will be sufficient to offset the drag from higher oil prices on South Korea's current account. The bank raised its forecast for South Korea's current account surplus in 2026 from 164 billions USD to 255 billions USD (about 9.3% of GDP), roughly double last year's level. Based on the effect of chip prices, the bank now expects semiconductor exports to surge by 120%, and due to ongoing supply constraints that may not ease until 2027, export volume growth will remain in the mid-double-digit range. Goldman Sachs does not rule out the possibility that the government may use excess corporate tax revenue to launch limited and targeted fiscal stimulus measures in the second half of the year.