If the February nonfarm payrolls are mediocre, the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations will be postponed to the third quarter.
According to Odaily, both the US February ADP employment numbers and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating that the job market, which the Federal Reserve is more concerned about, is becoming more stable. The Fed has previously signaled that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Additionally, due to the impact of war, domestic energy prices have soared. As a result, the market now expects the timing of the next rate cut to be postponed to around September. If the February non-farm payrolls data is mediocre or overshadowed by the war, and in the foreseeable scenario of a rebound in inflation, the market's expectation for the Fed's first rate cut will likely be extended to the third quarter.
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