Next Week's Macro Outlook: The Specter of Stagflation Returns, the Federal Reserve Faces a Dilemma, CPI and PCE Data as Key Variables
PANews, March 7th – According to Golden Ten Data, as tensions between the US and Iran escalate, uncertainty about future developments has led to significant market volatility this week. Recent data indicate that the Federal Reserve will have to address rising inflation and declining employment to curb the possibility of stagflation. The following are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week (all times UTC+8):
- Monday 23:00 (UTC+8): US February New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations;
- Wednesday 20:30 (UTC+8): US February Unadjusted CPI YoY, Unadjusted Core CPI YoY; US February Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM, Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM;
- Friday 15:00 (UTC+8): UK January Three-Month GDP MoM, January Manufacturing/Industrial Production MoM, January Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance;
- Friday 20:30 (UTC+8): US January Core PCE Price Index YoY/MoM, US January Personal Spending MoM, US Q4 Real GDP Annualized QoQ Revised, US January Durable Goods Orders MoM;
- Friday 22:00 (UTC+8): US January JOLTs Job Openings, US March Preliminary 1-Year Inflation Expectations, US March Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index;
Next week, particular attention should be paid to the February CPI released on Wednesday and the January PCE released on Friday. If the monthly rates of Core CPI and Core PCE Price Index are stronger than expected, it could further support the US dollar; conversely, if the data is weak, it may drag down the dollar and boost a rebound in spot gold. In addition, Q4 earnings season remains active, with attention next week on earnings reports from companies such as Oracle (ORCL.N).
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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