US Dollar Index gathers strength to near 99.00 on Middle East tensions, US CPI data looms

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 98.90 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The DXY edges higher amid uncertainty and persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that Tehran will determine when the war ends, not the United States (US). The IRGC warned that if US and Israeli attacks continue, Iran could block regional oil exports. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that if Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, it will be hit by the US. Uncertainty and fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East could drive traders toward safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar in the near term. 

The war in the Middle East stoked fears of inflation rising in the US, which increases the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates higher for longer. Markets currently see nearly a 95% odds that US rates will remain unchanged at the March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

On the other hand, the downbeat US February employment report put the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot. The February jobs report showed a decline of 92,000 payrolls, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February will take center stage later on Wednesday. The headline CPI is estimated to show an increase of 2.4% YoY in February, while the core CPI is expected to show a rise of 2.5% during the same period. If the report shows hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could underpin the Greenback in the near term.