Goldman Sachs: If shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish in March, oil prices may surpass the 2008 peak

Golden Ten Data reported on March 12 that Goldman Sachs expects the disruption of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz to be prolonged. The bank currently assumes that low-flow oil transport will last for 21 days, with throughput at only 10% of normal levels, compared to the previous assumption of 10 days. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude and WTI crude prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be $71 and $67 per barrel, respectively (previously expected to be $66 and $62). Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a report that if the low throughput in the Strait of Hormuz persists throughout March, daily oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak. They pointed out that until the market is convinced that a prolonged disruption is unlikely, oil prices are expected to trend upward. In the scenario of a 30-day disruption, the average prices for Brent and WTI in the fourth quarter could be $76 and $72 per barrel, respectively. If the disruption lasts 60 days, Goldman Sachs expects Brent and WTI average prices in the fourth quarter to be $93 and $89 per barrel, respectively.