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Nomura Securities: If the Iran conflict lasts more than three months, the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Korea is expected to rise

Nomura Securities: If the Iran conflict lasts more than three months, the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Korea is expected to rise

金十金十2026/03/16 04:11
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Golden Ten Data reported on March 16 that Nomura Securities economist Jeong Woo Park stated that if the Iran conflict lasts more than three months, the likelihood of the Bank of Korea raising interest rates may increase. As oil prices rise, the Bank of Korea is becoming more sensitive to inflation, and prolonged tensions in the Middle East could push inflation above the central bank’s 2% target, triggering a rate hike. He noted that although rising oil prices weigh on the economy, strong overseas demand for semiconductors and domestic fiscal support seem to limit downside risks to growth. Nomura maintains its forecasts for South Korea’s GDP growth and inflation in 2026 at 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, both higher than the Bank of Korea’s projections.
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