BTC Market Pulse: Week 12
Overview
Spot market signals are mixed but constructive. Spot CVD flipped decisively positive, reflecting a return of aggressive buying pressure, though overall spot volume declined toward its lower statistical band, suggesting broader participation remains subdued.
Derivatives markets reflect rising but cautious engagement. Futures OI edged higher as futures CVD surged, while funding payments moved further negative, pointing to persistent short positioning. In options, the volatility spread narrowed sharply as IV realigned with realised conditions, and 25-delta skew rose modestly, signalling continued demand for downside hedging.
ETF activity strengthened notably, with net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs accelerating meaningfully, indicating renewed institutional demand, even as total ETF trading volume cooled slightly from prior elevated levels.
On-chain activity remains relatively muted. Active addresses declined below their lower band and transfer volumes, while improving modestly, remain subdued. Fee volume remains stable, reflecting steady but quiet network usage.
Capital flow dynamics and investor positioning are gradually improving. Realized cap change remains negative but has moved closer to neutral, suggesting easing outflows. Meanwhile, profitability metrics such as supply in profit, NUPL, and the realized profit-to-loss ratio all improved modestly, pointing to a reduction in market stress.
Overall, market conditions are showing signs of stabilization and gradual recovery. Momentum and spot buying pressure have strengthened, ETF inflows remain supportive, and investor profitability is improving modestly. However, subdued on-chain activity and cautious derivatives positioning suggest broader conviction has yet to fully return.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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