WTI Price Outlook: Climbs Back Above $95.00 Driven by Supply Worries and Positive Technical Signals

WTI Crude Oil Rebounds Amid Supply Concerns

During Tuesday's Asian trading hours, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices saw a notable recovery, regaining ground lost in the previous session after slipping from the key $100 psychological level. At present, WTI is trading slightly above $95, marking an increase of nearly 2% for the day.

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital passageway responsible for around one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments—have intensified following the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The near shutdown of this strategic route has heightened fears of supply constraints, providing significant upward momentum for crude oil prices.

Technical Overview

From a charting standpoint, the short-term outlook remains moderately positive as WTI stays above the $94.22 level, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $112.83 to $75.61. Additionally, prices are comfortably positioned above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $88.33, reinforcing the prevailing bullish sentiment despite the recent pullback from the $98 region.

Technical indicators also suggest improving momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing reduced bearishness, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line near the zero mark—an early sign of renewed upward drive. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers close to 50, indicating the market is attempting to reestablish a clear direction after a period of consolidation.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: The first layer of support is found at $94.22. A move below this could trigger a deeper decline toward the $92.50–$92.25 congestion area, ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $89.83. Further down, the 200-period SMA near $88.33 offers additional downside protection.
• Resistance: On the upside, immediate resistance is clustered between $95.80 and $96.00, where recent intraday peaks have formed. The next significant barrier is the 61.8% retracement at $98.61, which has recently capped gains. A decisive hourly close above $98.61 could pave the way for a move toward the $104.87 Fibonacci level. Conversely, failure to break above $96.00 would leave the recovery vulnerable and shift attention back to the $94.22 support zone.

This technical analysis incorporates insights generated with the assistance of AI tools.

WTI 1-Hour Chart