Major Bank Ratings | Morgan Stanley: Macau gaming revenue expected to grow by 6% this year, Macau gaming stocks likely to underperform the broader market in the short term

格隆汇 March 19｜Morgan Stanley released a report, forecasting a 6% growth in Macau gaming revenue this year, with EBITDA rising only 2%, which is below market expectations and weaker year-on-year. Due to the base effect impacting gaming revenue in the second half of the year, growth will slow down, and the core mass market remains persistently weak. Additionally, the level of promotional offers in the industry is rising, along with continued non-gaming expenditures. As the focus is on the premium mass market, cost pressures (especially reinvestment) are structural. Downward revisions in market earnings estimates will put pressure on this year's EBITDA forecasts. The bank expects Macau gaming stocks to underperform the broader market in the short term, and has downgraded its industry view from "attractive" to "in line with expectations"; it anticipates that gaming revenue growth will slow year-on-year starting in May, with EBITDA negative growth recorded in the second and third quarters.