Falling, falling, falling—the world is selling everything it can.

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

Global Market "Black Thursday":

- Asia-Pacific equity markets plunged across the board, with Japanese stocks down over 3%;

- Gold prices plummeted by over $200 for the second consecutive trading day;

- U.S. Treasuries fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking through the 4.30 level;

- Both the U.S. dollar and U.S. crude oil declined together, and meanwhile, U.S. stock futures were also falling.

The U.S. market has not even opened yet, and wails are already being heard everywhere.

First, the situation is heading toward a loss of control. The global market has shifted from expecting an Iran conflict to be resolved quickly to now anticipating that it will last for months—traders are no longer trading based on "policy" but on the possibility of things "spiraling out of control."

Iran attacked a key refinery on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast and a liquefied natural gas export facility in Qatar; after Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, Iran threatened further retaliatory actions.

With market moves like these, the U.S. may be forced to soften its stance. Trump urged all sides to ease off attacks on Iranian and Qatari gas facilities; U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent said the U.S. may "remove sanctions on Iranian oil floating at sea," and that the U.S. could unilaterally release oil reserves. However, this did not alter the market trajectory.

Second, the real danger today is not the drop itself but the fact that assets that shouldn’t fall together are now all dropping—none of the dollar, gold, or Treasuries are playing their safe-haven roles. The market is no longer distinguishing between logics, just selling everything that can be sold.

Third, the spread between Brent crude oil futures and U.S. crude oil futures reached $20 at one point today, the first time since 2013. The spread usually sits between $0–$5, but now it has widened to $20—meaning the market is pricing in a “supply disruption risk.” Brent crude stands for seaborne international oil, while the U.S. system prices U.S. inland inventory and shale oil; essentially, the “maritime oil risk premium” is maxed out.

This isn’t the most dangerous moment, but we have already entered the “danger zone.”