UBS Raises 2026-2027 Oil Price Forecasts
On March 20, UBS Group raised its oil price forecasts for the period of 2026 to 2027, reflecting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing conflict situation in the Middle East. UBS increased its 2026 oil price forecast by $14 to $86 per barrel and raised its 2027 oil price forecast by $10 to $80 per barrel. Analysts stated, "This forecast is based on the assumption that the conflict will continue for another 2 to 3 weeks, until early April, and that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will remain severely reduced. We assume that major oil fields and terminals will not be damaged, and that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually recover from April onwards, but will not fully return to normal."
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