Cinda Futures: The core of the current gold trend lies in the renewed constraint on interest rate expectations caused by rising energy prices.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 22 that Cinda Futures pointed out that, based on current drivers, the core of gold's trend lies in the renewed constraint on interest rate expectations caused by rising energy prices. As the Middle East conflict continues, crude oil prices remain high, with Brent crude oil futures previously stabilizing above $100, significantly raising market concerns about inflation stickiness. Against this backdrop, the market's assessment of the path for inflation to decline has become more cautious, thereby weakening the pricing for rate cuts and driving the dollar to strengthen temporarily, which puts pressure on gold. Meanwhile, although previous employment data was weak, inflation expectations driven by energy are offsetting this positive factor, making gold's financial attributes short-term bearish. On the policy front, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, but the key lies in the forward guidance on the interest rate path, especially Powell's assessment of the impact of inflation and geopolitical conflicts, which will directly affect the market's judgment on the pace of subsequent easing.