Viewpoint: The bond market will determine how long Trump can continue to pressure Iran over the conflict

Jinse Finance reported that on March 23, The Kobeissi Letter posted on the X platform stating, "Oil prices are no longer the biggest threat facing the market. It is increasingly clear that the bond market will determine how long President Trump can continue to exert pressure on the Iran conflict. Since the outbreak of the conflict on February 28, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has risen by about 45 basis points. This is consistent with the rapid surge seen around 'Liberation Day' in April 2025. In April 2025, when the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.50%, President Trump began hinting at the possibility of suspending additional tariffs. When the 10-year yield surpassed 4.60%, President Trump officially announced on April 9, 2025, a 90-day suspension of his reciprocal tariff policy. Currently, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.40%, and we believe the 4.50%—4.60% range will once again become a critical warning line. The US economy cannot withstand the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to the 5% level."