GBP/USD: Pound consolidates in tight band – Scotiabank

Scotiabank analysts say the Pound is slightly softer against the Dollar, consolidating near 1.34 after a recovery from mid‑March lows. Mixed UK PMI data leave both manufacturing and services just above 50, while markets focus on BoE Chief Economist Pill’s speech as rate expectations have swung toward roughly 60 bps of tightening by year‑end.

Sterling holds within defined range

"The pound is soft, down 0.2% vs. the USD and seeing short-term congestion around 1.34. The geopolitical situation continues to dominate as a primary driver for the GBP, and Monday’s swings ultimately delivered a fractional extension of the recovery from mid-March."

"Fundamentally, the latest PMI’s delivered a mixed read on activity with a slight surprise in manufacturing and a slight disappointment in services, with both in mild expansion hovering just above the neutral threshold at 50."

"BoE risk lies with Chief Economist Pill’s speech scheduled for 9:30am ET as market participants look to guidance following the recent rapid swing in rate expectations with markets now pricing just over 60bpts of tightening by December."

"Neutral—the daily RSI is just below the neutral threshold at 50 following an impressive recovery from recent oversold lows."

"Near-term resistance is at 1.3450, and we look to a short-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450. Short-term price action has confirmed a bullish reversal and a rising trend from the March 13 lows. Near-term resistance is at 1.3450, and we look to a short-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)