Huaxi Securities: The new round of gold rally may have to wait until expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut resume

According to Golden Ten Data on March 26, Huaxi Securities pointed out that gold volatility has increased significantly, and position sizes still need to be strictly controlled. Gold implied volatility has continued to rise since last Thursday, reaching 35, a 99.4% historical high since 2009. This is due to gold entering a sharp decline, awaiting a decrease in volatility. In the longer term, the medium- and long-term logic supporting gold still exists: on one hand, with the accelerated evolution of the geopolitical landscape, the marginal weakening of US dollar credit and the underlying logic of global central banks' "de-dollarization" remain unchanged; on the other hand, the scale of US Treasury bonds continues to climb, and reliance on loose monetary policy remains high, so there is still no foundation for a significant reversal in gold's trend. The sharp correction in gold prices this round is largely a deep adjustment following previous excessive gains, and it is expected that subsequent bottoming and recovery will take a relatively long time. A new round for gold prices may only begin when expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts are reignited.