XRP price risks 50% drop despite Goldman Sachs' $152M ETF exposure

XRP (XRP) traded at $1.37 after a 3.5% decline in the last 24 hours, shrugging off Goldman Sachs’ disclosure of exposure to spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

While this highlights long-term institutional confidence, it comes amid fragile risk sentiment and a typical breakdown from a bearish setup.

Key takeaways:

• Goldman Sachs disclosed $152.17 million in spot XRP ETF holdings across four funds, making it the largest institutional holder in this segment.

• XRP maintains its bear pennant breakdown setup targeting $0.72.

Goldman Sachs discloses $152 million exposure to XRP ETFs

Goldman Sachs has emerged as the largest disclosed institutional holder of US spot XRP ETFs, revealing a $152 million position in its Q4 2025 13F filing with the SEC. 

The $3.5 trillion asset manager has spread its exposure across four funds: $39.8 million in Bitwise XRP ETF, $38.5 million in Franklin XRP Trust, $38 million in Grayscale XRP ETF, and $35.9 million in 21Shares XRP ETF. 

Goldman isn’t alone. Its allocation accounts for roughly 73% of the about $211 million held by the top 30 institutional investors in XRP ETFs, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst James  Seyffart.

While this institutional move highlights long-term confidence, XRP price remains 25% below its yearly open around $1.84, driven by slowing ETF inflows and macro headwinds.

Cumulative net inflows into US-based XRP ETFs crossed the $1 billion mark within the first few months of trading, peaking at $1.28 billion on Jan. 16. The pace has since cooled to $1.21 billion today.

Total assets under management peaked around $1.65 billion in early January but have dropped to roughly $995 billion, dragged down by XRP's price decline and a stretch of net outflows, according to data from SoSoValue.

XRP ETFs recorded a total of $56.5 million in net outflows between March 3 and March 16. Since then, the daily inflows have been muted below $5 million. 

XRP bear pennant breakdown underway

XRP price broke down from its prevailing bear pennant when it dropped below the lower trend line of the pattern at $1.40 on Thursday. The price could retest the lower trend line as new resistance, a move that could confirm the breakdown.

Bull pennants form when price consolidates inside a triangle following a steep decline. Once the price breaks below that triangle, it triggers another massive downward move.

For XRP, the measured target of the bear pennant is $0.72, roughly 48% below the current price. 

As Cointelegraph reported, a break below $1.27 would suggest that the bears are still in control, fueling XRP/USD drop toward $1.

Declining XRP volatility hints at “sharp” price move next

XRP’s volatility metrics are warning of an imminent massive price move.

The 30-day Realized Volatility (RV 30D) has dropped to around 0.5266, marking the lowest level for 2026. 

Meanwhile, the Volatility Z-Score is at -0.9048, “reflecting a clear decline in volatility compared to the historical average,” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a recent Quicktake note, adding:

“This type of volatility contraction is commonly referred to as volatility compression, a phase that often precedes a sharp price movement in either direction.”