Bitunix Analyst: Employment Cools Down and Energy Contracts Again, with War Spilling Over to Technology Infrastructure; Market Enters "Risk Mispricing" Phase

BlockBeats News, April 1, the market is simultaneously enduring the triple disruptions of "weakened employment + renewed energy contraction + escalating war." The decline in US job openings shows, gasoline prices rising to $4 and OPEC output falling to a new low since the pandemic peak indicate that energy supply is being passively tightened again, unresolved inflationary pressure is making policy direction uncertain once more; meanwhile, Buffett continues accumulating cash, and the CFTC strengthens its supervision of energy and information manipulation, reflecting that mainstream capital is reducing risk exposure and remaining alert to market mispricing.

On the geopolitical front, there has been a qualitative change. Iran has not withdrawn but has instead expanded its targets from traditional energy and military facilities to include US technology and data infrastructure, directly naming multiple Silicon Valley and defense companies' operational bases in the Middle East. This means the war has escalated from an "energy supply chain" risk to a systemic risk affecting "digital and computing power infrastructure." At the same time, internal divisions within NATO have intensified, with core European countries restricting military cooperation, and the UAE shifting to active military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz. This shows that there is no unified global operational framework; instead, the world has entered a state of multi-party competition and outsourced responsibility, further weakening the market's ability to efficiently price risk.

Within this structure, capital behavior has turned extremely conservative and short-term: on one hand, cash and hedging demand are rising; on the other, energy and war premiums continue to interfere with the valuation of risk assets, leaving the market without a stable anchor. As a result, BTC's current movement is not proactive but rather a passive reflection of whether capital is willing to take on risk. At present, a clear liquidity accumulation has formed in the 69,000–70,100 range above, but the price in the short term remains capped at 68,000, showing insufficient buying momentum; while 65,500 below has become a short-term risk testing zone—should macro or conflict situations escalate again, this zone may turn into a liquidity release point.

Overall, the market has shifted from "event-driven" to "structural distortion": weaker employment has not brought about expectations of easing, energy contraction keeps pushing up latent inflation, and war is spreading from the physical supply chain to digital infrastructure. In the midst of these intertwined uncertainties, any price fluctuations are essentially just the result of liquidity being redistributed, rather than the establishment of a clear trend.