Tensions Rise Between the US and Iran, But These Central Banks Are Selling Gold? The Reasons May Not Be What You Think

Huitong Network, April 7th—— This article provides an in-depth analysis of the underlying logic behind the divergence in the movements of gold, crude oil, and the US dollar amid escalating US-Iran tensions. As the April 8th ultimatum approaches, the market is in a precarious "terrifying balance" on the eve of volatility.

On Tuesday (April 7th), the nerves of the global financial markets are tightly focused on the evolution of the Middle East situation. Since the escalation of US-Iran tensions on February 28, 2026, the conflict has entered its sixth week. Despite rumors last week that Pakistan’s mediation had entered a “critical stage,” the US’s “April 8th ultimatum” still hangs over the market like a Sword of Damocles.

Such an environment of extreme uncertainty would typically be the moment for gold to shine as a safe haven asset, yet the actual market performance displays a strange divergence: As US-Iran relations become increasingly tense, international gold prices recorded their worst monthly performance since 2008 in March. Meanwhile,

prices remain elevated, while the and continue to oscillate strongly. This phenomenon leaves many investors puzzled: Is the situation about to reverse? Or have central banks lost trust in gold?

In reality, this divergence is not a failure of the risk-hedging logic, but rather a secondary disaster caused by war—liquidity crises and soaring energy costs are reshaping the short-term trends of major asset classes.

Why are some central banks selling gold even as tensions rise?

To understand this seemingly contradictory phenomenon, it is necessary to look beyond appearances: The reason some countries are selling gold is not because they are “bearish” but because they are in “emergency mode.”


The stalemate in US-Iran relations has directly resulted in shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to prices holding above $100 per barrel for an extended period, with the latest quote on April 7th at USD. For energy-import-dependent countries like Turkey, high oil prices mean a sharp widening of their trade deficits. To pay for expensive energy bills and defend their domestic currencies on the verge of collapse, selling highly liquid gold has become the most helpless yet swift solution. Since the outbreak of war, Turkey has sold about 60 tons of gold, essentially due to economic pressures caused by the conflict.


Gold is a “strategic reserve” for de-dollarization in times of peace, but in war-driven inflation crises, it becomes “doomsday survival cash.” With the currently hovering around and the market widely expecting the Fed not to cut rates this year, the opportunity cost of holding gold (which does not generate interest) is intensified against the backdrop of a as high as . For economies facing sanctions and financing stress, selling gold to obtain US dollar cash to sustain national defense and basic government functions is a more urgent task than long-term reserve management.


It should be clarified that central banks overall have not changed direction. According to well-known institutions, global central banks are still expected to be net buyers of 850 tons of gold in 2026. Major countries like China have increased their holdings for 17 consecutive months. This divergence in actions between major and minor economies, and between importers and exporters, precisely illustrates the uneven impact of war on the global economy.

In-depth technical analysis and range forecasts for each asset

On the 60-minute chart, spot gold is currently quoted at , experiencing a subtle equilibrium phase. Technically, the Bollinger Bands have flattened, and price is oscillating near the middle band. Although MACD formed a golden cross below the zero axis, the histogram is weak, indicating that rebound momentum is constrained by the strong resistance zone at .

: The short-term resistance is at the upper Bollinger band of and the extended resistance of the April 2nd high at .
: The lower support is at the lower Bollinger band of , and if broken, a retest of the previous low at is possible.
: Gold prices are currently caught in a tug-of-war between “safe haven demand” and “liquidity sell-off under high interest rates,” and are highly susceptible to the outcome of the April 8th ultimatum in the short term.



Crude oil prices have shown great strength recently, forming a V-shaped rebound. On the 60-minute chart, prices are at (UTC+8), with the Bollinger Bands widening upward, displaying a classic bullish pattern. Although the MACD lines are above the zero axis, the histogram has turned slightly negative, suggesting a need for short-term correction after a rapid rise.

: The upper resistance targets the Bollinger band at and previous highs.
: First support is at the middle Bollinger band at , with strong support at .
: The anticipated blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the strongest geopolitical premium for oil prices. As long as negotiations make no substantive progress, oil prices are more likely to rise than fall.



(latest at ) and ( ) are highly synchronized. The 4-hour chart shows the Bollinger Bands on US Treasury yields are extremely constricted, and the MACD lines have converged, reflecting a temporary "terrifying balance" between Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical risks.

: Fluctuation is locked within . A break below opens further downside; conversely, renewed safe haven buying will push it back above .
: Expected to fluctuate between .

Outlook for the next 2-3 days

The next 48-72 hours will be a window period for determining short-term trends.

First, is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern. As the April 8th ultimatum deadline approaches, market concerns over supply disruptions will peak, and oil prices may seek to break out near USD (UTC+8). If the situation rapidly changes, further upside cannot be ruled out.

Second, is very likely to remain highly volatile within the range. On one hand, some central bank selling and a strong US dollar are suppressing gains; on the other, the urgency of geopolitical tensions is providing bottom support. Unless there are clear signals of a ceasefire or full-scale war escalation, gold is unlikely to show a unidirectional trend.

Lastly, remains the global safe haven amid frozen expectations of Fed rate cuts, fluctuating around threshold in a tug-of-war fashion in the short term.

【Frequently Asked Questions】

Answer: Not at all. The current selling is mainly a forced liquidity operation by countries like Turkey due to currency crises and energy deficits triggered by war. Meanwhile, countries like China and India are still accumulating, indicating that gold’s strategic role as a hedge against US dollar credit risk remains intact.


Answer: The current mild correction is technical. Since oil prices surged from around USD at the end of March to above USD (UTC+8), there has been significant profit-taking before the April 8th ultimatum. As long as risks of a Hormuz Strait blockade persist, oil’s structural support remains very strong.


Answer: It acts as a “ceiling” effect. High yields mean holding non-interest-bearing gold incurs large opportunity costs. Unless risk-aversion can outweigh the yield pressure, gold prices will have difficulty breaking previous highs.


Answer: Tariff remarks usually boost inflation expectations and benefit the US dollar. In the current war context, such comments further reinforce market expectations that "high interest rates will persist longer," indirectly suppressing gold’s valuation.


Answer: The most critical factor is Iran's response to the US April 8th ultimatum and the actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. Any news of an escalation in the blockade or an unexpected ceasefire could instantly break the current volatility ranges for all related asset classes.