FTSE Russell Head of Research: Gold's role as a safe haven remains unchanged, while stagflation signals reinforce the allocation value of commodities

(1) Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at FTSE Russell, stated that despite recent volatility in gold and its failure to attract safe-haven buying amid geopolitical risks, gold’s role within portfolios has not undergone a structural change. Gold continues to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty, but investors need to distinguish between long-term fundamentals and short-term headwinds. (2) Gold’s safe-haven appeal is being offset by the rising opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets: Middle East conflicts have driven up energy prices and reignited inflation concerns, which in turn push markets to expect central bank interest rate hikes. At the same time, after gold prices surged to a record high of $5,600 earlier this year, a more intense profit-taking cycle has made gold more sensitive to market liquidity. However, gold’s decline is broadly in line with global equity markets, as part of the wider repricing of assets. (3) The global economy is sending out signals of “stagflation” (slowing growth combined with persistent inflation), with commodity markets (rising oil prices and weakening copper prices) clearly indicating stagflation risks. In such an environment, gold still serves as a defensive anchor, while other commodities (especially energy, industrial metals, and transition metals) are also in continuous demand due to AI and the green transition, providing even stronger justification for diversified allocations.