Will the U.S. and Iran settle their differences without a battlefield victory? Analyst: Iran only needs to drive the market down to the "Trump collapse point"

Glonghui, April 10th｜Is the ultimate outcome of the US-Iran conflict not determined on the battlefield? Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist at a market research firm, pointed out that a specific market threshold may decide the course of the US-Iran conflict: a combined drop of 12%-15% in both stock and bond prices. According to him, this level represents President Trump’s “breaking point” in the current Iran conflict and last year’s trade war. In his latest report, the strategist noted: “At present, the market is still 7% above this ‘breaking point.’” Joshi believes that Iran can exploit the stock and bond markets as an alternative to conventional warfare. “Iran doesn’t need to sink a US warship—it only needs to bring down the US stock and bond markets to cause even greater disruption,” he added. Joshi pointed out that this dynamic has already formed a pattern: whenever a final ultimatum to Iran approaches, Trump announces an “ultimatum extension” under market pressure, but once the market recovers, he declares there has been insufficient progress.