Morgan Stanley: Tisza Party's victory will boost the Hungarian stock market and forint exchange rate

老虎证券2026/04/13 05:35

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Economists and strategists, including George Jeianov, wrote in a report: “Despite unfavorable external circumstances, this election result will significantly benefit the reduction of risk premia on Hungary's currency and yield curve.” If EU funds are unfrozen, Hungary’s economic growth potential may increase by 1 to 1.5 percentage points; a stronger forint would mean that the country's central bank may “tighten monetary policy by less than the 50 basis points we currently expect.” In the medium to long term, Hungary’s local currency is expected to outperform other currencies by 5% to 7%, while the yield curve may decline by 100 to 150 basis points, led by a drop in long-term yields.

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Goldman Sachs believes that the rapid rise in real interest rates has exerted more direct pressure on the US stock market, with rate-sensitive sectors such as small-cap and financial stocks being particularly affected. On the liquidity front, Goldman Sachs estimates that pension funds may sell around $3.3 billions in equities at the end of the month and quarter, and that CTAs may sell about $530 million worth of Russell 2000 index futures in the coming week. For the market, unless the issues of oil and interest rates are resolved, the AI narrative is "almost irrelevant."

华尔街见闻•2026/09/30 04:01

USD/JPY falls below 157! The yen becomes the strongest G-10 currency, with the market betting on another rate hike by the central bank next month.

On Wednesday, the yen strengthened against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY rate falling below the 157 mark, as repeated warnings from the Japanese government regarding exchange rates and end-of-quarter capital flows provided support for the yen.

智通财经•2026/09/30 03:41