Guojin Securities: The impact of the Strait of Hormuz is not limited to oil and gas prices but continues to spread from the raw material system to the industrial production sector

Once disruption occurs, the impact is not limited to oil and gas prices—it continuously spreads along the raw materials system to the industrial production side. The Red Sea crisis has changed transport routes, while the Hormuz shock impacts the supply itself. The problem does not lie in short-term price fluctuations, but in the repeated validation of supply constraints. When this happens, the industry chain will shift its priority from efficiency to security, and the original division of labor will be adjusted accordingly. Opportunities do not stem from demand expansion, but from the mismatch between supply gaps and substitution capabilities. China possesses substitution capability in certain chains, making it a relative beneficiary. From the supply side downward, the structural space is mainly evolving along three paths: a stability premium in the energy system, a repricing of food security, and a reassessment of the substitution path in manufacturing.